Economic Forecasting 宏观经济指标预测与研究 Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-07-14 10:06:02 Updated 2026-07-14 10:06:02
月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals

非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls

非农就业是确认劳动力市场景气度的核心月频指标，对增长、消费和政策预期都有重要影响。 Nonfarm payrolls are a flagship monthly labor indicator that shapes growth, consumption, and policy expectations.

返回终端总览 Back to overview terminal 查看本次变化 Open latest batch 查看发布时间日历 Open release calendar 查看发布历史 Open release history

当前周期读数 Current-Cycle Readout

把当前可用值、上一期、下一预测和时间语义放在同一页，方便从总览切到单指标深读。 Keep the current reading, prior observation, next forecast, and timing semantics on one page for single-indicator deep reading.

偏积极 Constructive
当前可用值 Current usable value
0

同比 Year over year

上一期 Previous reading
0

观测 2026-05-01 Observed 2026-05-01

下一预测 Next forecast
159,079

目标 2026-06-01 Target 2026-06-01

状态 Current status
正常 Normal

按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.

数据状态 Data status
缓存兜底 Cached fallback

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。 This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

本次变化摘要 This Cycle Change

这一层直接回答当前值相对上一正式值发生了什么，以及本周期是否已经出现新的正式发布。 This layer answers what changed versus the prior official print and whether a new official release has already arrived this cycle.

变化方向 Direction
上行 Up

非农就业人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。 Nonfarm Payrolls fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

最新正式值 Latest official value
0

上一正式值 0 Previous official 0

本周期状态 Cycle status
已更新 Updated

本轮上游抓数发生退化，站点沿用了上一版已验证的公开稳定值。 This run degraded during upstream fetch, so the site carried forward the previous validated public value.

下一次正式发布 Next official release
2026-08-07

24 天后 In 24 days

非农就业人数 本周期已更新，最新正式值 0 较上一正式值 0 上行 0。 Nonfarm Payrolls has updated this cycle, with the latest official reading of 0 rising 0 from the prior official value of 0.

时间语义 Time semantics

最新观测、官方发布、站点更新和预测目标分别回答的是不同问题，不能彼此替代。 Observed, official release, site update, and forecast target answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.

最新观测 Observed 2026-06-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-07-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-07-14 10:06
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-06-01 00:00

图表阅读 Chart view

先看焦点窗口确认最新拐点和预测边界，再看长历史窗口理解该指标在更长周期中的位置。 Use the focus window for the latest turn and forecast boundary, then the long-history window for broader cycle context.

焦点图 Focus chart ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)
长历史图 Long-history chart 全窗口 Full window

模型与诊断 Model & diagnostics

MAE 615.277
RMSE 2061.132
MAPE 0.44
方向准确率 Direction 76.6%

模型框架：ARIMAX(0, 1, 0) Model: ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)

发布时间节奏 Release cadence

最近一次官方发布 Latest official release 2026-07-03 00:00
下一次官方发布 Next official release 2026-08-07 00:00

发布时间有早有后通常来自指标自身的官方节奏差异，而不是站点异常。 Differences across release timing usually come from the indicator's official cadence rather than a site anomaly.

2026-07-03 观测 2026-06-01 Observed 2026-06-01 0
2026-06-05 观测 2026-05-01 Observed 2026-05-01 0
2026-05-01 观测 2026-04-01 Observed 2026-04-01 0
2026-04-03 观测 2026-03-01 Observed 2026-03-01 0
2026-03-06 观测 2026-02-01 Observed 2026-02-01 0
2026-02-06 观测 2026-01-01 Observed 2026-01-01 0
正式发布时间 Official release 观测期 Observed at 正式值 Official value 本周期标记 Cycle flag
2026-07-03 2026-06-01 0 当前周期 Current cycle
2026-06-05 2026-05-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2026-05-01 2026-04-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2026-04-03 2026-03-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2026-03-06 2026-02-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2026-02-06 2026-01-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2026-01-02 2025-12-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2025-12-05 2025-11-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2025-11-07 2025-10-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2025-10-03 2025-09-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2025-09-05 2025-08-01 0 历史正式值 Historical print
2025-08-01 2025-07-01 1 历史正式值 Historical print

方法与边界 Method & boundary

它更适合做月度确认，短期边际变化仍需要和周频劳动力信号一起读。 It is best used as a monthly confirmation gauge and should be read alongside weekly labor signals for shorter-term inflections.

这一详情页把月度配置摘要、混频观察面和发布时间语义汇总到单一指标视角，方便从总览切到深读。 This detail page condenses the monthly summary, mixed-cadence surface, and release semantics into a single-indicator view for deeper reading.

相关研究 Related research

优先展示与当前指标直接相关的正式研究和模板化更新摘要，帮助从单指标延伸到主题判断。 Prioritize anchor research and templated update briefs linked to this indicator so the user can move from a single series into thematic reading.

主研究 Anchor Research

Economic Forecasting 研究组 Economic Forecasting Research Desk 正式研究 Anchor research

七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡 How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard

这七个公开指标不是七个平行栏目，而是一张分层记分卡。通胀、增长、劳动力和利率分别提供不同的确认职责，只有把它们按发布时间节奏和信息功能放到同一框架里，平台才会真正像终端，而不是一组孤立图表。 The seven public indicators are not seven parallel columns but a layered scorecard. Inflation, growth, labor, and rates each play a different confirmation role, and only a shared cadence-and-function framework makes the platform feel like a terminal rather than a set of disconnected charts.

通胀 Inflation 增长 Growth 劳动力 Labor 利率 Rates 主研究 Anchor
核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index 非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls 工业生产 Industrial Production 初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims 10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield 2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield 10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
发布时间 2026-04-03 Published 2026-04-03

月度简报 Monthly Briefs

Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief

2026年7月月度配置简报 Jul 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 10年期美债收益率、2年期美债收益率、10Y-2Y美债利差、非农就业人数 展开，并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。 This month's brief centers on 10Y Treasury Yield, 2Y Treasury Yield, 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread, Nonfarm Payrolls and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

月度配置 Monthly allocation 公开指标 Published indicators
核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index 非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls 工业生产 Industrial Production 10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield 2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield 10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread 初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims
发布时间 2026-07-14 Published 2026-07-14

最新指标更新 Latest Release Notes

Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 指标更新 Release note

非农就业人数 发布摘要 Nonfarm Payrolls release note

非农就业人数 本轮抓取退化，站点沿用了上一个已公开的稳定值。 Nonfarm Payrolls fell back to the last stable public value because this run degraded during fetch.

月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals 月频 Monthly
非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls
发布时间 2026-07-14 Published 2026-07-14