方法与数据说明 | Economic Forecasting

方法与数据说明 Methodology & Data Policy

这一页解释公开预测面的覆盖指标、模型框架、评估口径与数据边界，并说明为何不同指标的最新时间不同步。 This page explains the public forecast surface through indicator coverage, model framework, evaluation metrics, data boundaries, and why timestamps differ across indicators.

方法原则 Operating Principles

模型框架 Model framework

当前公开页面以 ARIMA 与 AUTO-ARIMAX 为核心方法，面向短期宏观跟踪与预测窗口展示。 The current public surface relies on ARIMA and AUTO-ARIMAX methods for short-horizon macro monitoring and forecast-window presentation.

评估口径 Evaluation

页面统一展示 MAE、RMSE、MAPE 与方向准确率，用于提供可比较的模型诊断视角。 The page presents MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and directional accuracy to offer a comparable view of model diagnostics.

时间差异 Why timestamps differ

日频、周频、月频指标按各自官方发布节奏更新。月频指标的最新观测往往早于站点更新时间，这属于正常现象，不代表数据异常。 Daily, weekly, and monthly indicators update on their own official release cadence. Monthly series often have an observation date that precedes the site update date, which is normal and not a data anomaly.

五层阅读结构 Five-layer reading structure

公开站点以月度配置摘要形成统一判断，再用混频观察面保留真实节奏，通过单指标详情页承接深读，再用发布时间工作台和研究流连接持续跟踪。 The public site starts with a monthly allocation summary, keeps real cadence through the mixed-cadence surface, deepens through indicator detail pages, and then connects ongoing monitoring through the release workbench and research stream.

数据边界 Data boundary

页面聚焦核心指标与其预测窗口，不直接展示内部调度日志或维护字段。更完整的工程说明请见系统说明页。 This page focuses on flagship indicators and their forecast windows rather than internal scheduler logs or maintenance fields. Deeper engineering notes live in the System Guide.

时间语义说明 Time Semantics

不同指标的最新时间不同步通常来自官方发布节奏差异，而不是站点异常。当前站点采用“月度配置摘要 + 混频观察面 + 指标详情页 + 节奏工作台 + 研究流”的五层结构来解释这些差异。 Differences across timestamps usually come from official release cadence rather than site anomalies. The current site explains them through a five-layer structure: monthly summary, mixed-cadence surface, indicator detail pages, the cadence workbench, and the research stream.

最新观测 Observed

指标目前最新的一次有效观测期或观测点。 The most recent valid observed period or point for an indicator.

官方发布 Official release

指标对应的官方发布时间；缺失时会显示“待追踪”，不会拿文件时间冒充。 The official release date for the indicator. If unavailable, the UI shows “Pending tracking” rather than using a file timestamp.

站点更新 Site update

本次页面产物写入站点的时间，用于说明页面何时完成更新。 The time when the current site output was written, showing when the page itself was refreshed.

预测目标 Forecast target

当前公开预测窗口对应的下一目标期，用于区分“最新观测”和“下一预测点”。 The next target period inside the public forecast window, separating the latest observation from the next forecast point.

模型覆盖范围 Published Model Surface

7 个目标指标 · 17 个外生序列 7 targets · 17 exogenous series

指标 Indicator	模型 Spec	外生项 Exogenous	MAE	RMSE	MAPE	方向准确率 Direction
核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index PCE_Core	ARIMAX(1, 1, 0) M · transform yoy_mom	4	0.129	0.217	0.12	93.3%
非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls NonFarm_Payrolls	ARIMAX(0, 1, 0) M · transform yoy_diff_mom	5	619.558	2075.745	0.44	75.6%
工业生产 Industrial Production Ind_Production	ARIMAX(0, 1, 0) M · transform yoy_mom	5	0.684	1.408	0.71	46.7%
10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield Yield_10Y	ARIMAX(3, 1, 3) D · transform level	4	0.184	0.240	7.98	49.3%
2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield Yield_2Y	ARIMAX(1, 1, 0) D · transform level	4	0.164	0.224	16.46	48.5%
10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread Yield_10Y2Y	ARIMAX(3, 1, 0) D · transform level	3	0.121	0.199	33.82	49.3%
初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims Initial_Claims	ARIMA(1, 1, 1) M · transform level	0	32973.564	180142.032	5.72	44.1%